Poll Numbers, Radical Agenda, Drive War Decisions

Yesterday Chris Bowers made the interesting point that Obama’s decision on Afghanistan is likely to most heavily impact his standing among Democrats — and that if he damages his standing among the base it risks imperiling the rest of his agenda.

Comes now some new Gallup polling that seems to confirm this: It finds that Obama’s decision is likely to have its greatest impact among fellow Dems, and may not change his standing much with Republicans and independents.

Though nothing has been decided, Obama’s advisers are said to be leaning towards sending around 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, and most of the various scenarios Obama is considering entail a troop increase. The rub, from Gallup, is that a huge percentage of Dems don’t want any increase:

If Obama decides to increase U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan, he will be going against the wishes of the vast majority of rank-and-file Democrats. In fact, 60% of Democrats would like the president to begin to reduce troop levels in Afghanistan, while 26% support a troop increase of about 40,000 (18%) or less than that number (8%).

More here.